A rolling programme is a standing weekly or fortnightly volume agreed several weeks ahead and revised on a fixed cadence, and it is the point at which a mid-size buyer stops competing for whatever is left. Spot buying works when supply is comfortable. It fails in exactly the weeks you most need it to work, because a packhouse allocating short supply protects the buyers whose volume it can forecast. The move from spot to programme is not about ordering more. It is about ordering predictably.
What a standing allocation actually buys
Five things, in rough order of value. Priority when the crop is short, because programme volume is reserved before spot volume is quoted. A fixed pack format and label, so your retail customer sees the same carton every week. Reserved freight space, which matters most in December and January when reefer allocation out of Alexandria is tight. A price band rather than a weekly surprise. And better payment terms, because a supplier carrying a known annual value will extend credit it would never extend on a one-off.
How a workable programme is structured
| Clause | Common setting | Why it is there |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast horizon | 8 to 12 weeks | Matches packhouse harvest planning |
| Firm window | Weeks 1 and 2 | Fruit is picked against it |
| Volume tolerance | Plus or minus 15% | Absorbs your own demand noise |
| Revision cadence | Weekly, same weekday | Keeps both sides honest |
| Price basis | Fixed in the firm window | Indexed or reviewed beyond it |
| Notice to skip a week | 14 days | Before harvest is committed |
| Entry volume | 2 pallet positions weekly | Enough to justify reserved space |
| Initial term | 6 to 8 weeks | Short enough to exit cleanly |
How to start without over-committing
Run two trial shipments first and grade the supplier on both, not on the first one, because any exporter can get one container right. Then open a rolling programme at a base volume you are confident of selling in a bad week, with an upside option rather than a stretch commitment. A programme running at 100 per cent of base with regular upside calls is worth more to a supplier than one running at 60 per cent of an ambitious number, and it will be treated better when the crop tightens. The mechanics of that tightening are described in our note on how allocation is decided when Egyptian supply runs short.
What you give up
Flexibility to chase a cheap week elsewhere, and a certain amount of administrative work: a forecast that is never sent is worse than no programme at all, because the supplier plans against a number you have stopped believing. There is also a real risk of committing to volume before your own sales are contracted. Keep the base honest. The volumes that make a programme viable in the first place are set out in our guide to minimum order quantities from Egypt, and continuity of certification across the term is worth confirming against the supplier’s current GLOBALG.A.P registration rather than assuming it rolls over.
Peivana is the exporter here, not a neutral adviser, and a programme plainly suits us as well as it suits the buyer. The clauses above are the ones we would expect a careful importer to insist on.
Open a programme for the autumn crops
Pomegranate, sweet potato and taro programmes for October onward are being set now. Send your weekly base volume, destination port and pack preference and we will come back with a draft schedule. WhatsApp +20 10 9911 1918.